La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 1 · 13:00 · Elche vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Elche win · 43%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche43%39%+4
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−8
OursMarket
Espanyol35%31%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 48% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 54% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Feb 20 · at Athletic Club (A)1-2
- Feb 13 · v Osasuna (H)0-0
- Feb 7 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-3
- Jan 23 · at Levante (A)2-3
Espanyol
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Feb 21 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-4
- Feb 14 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-2
- Feb 9 · at Villarreal (A)1-4
- Jan 30 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-2
- Jan 24 · at Valencia (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Elche | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.