La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 17:00 · Elche vs Getafe
Likeliest: Elche win · 50%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche50%42%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%32%−8
OursMarket
Getafe25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 35% | +18 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 43% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 58% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 61% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- May 12 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-3
- Apr 26 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
Getafe
WinLossLossDrawWin
- May 13 · v Mallorca (H)3-1
- May 10 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- May 3 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-2
- Apr 25 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Apr 22 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Elche | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.