La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 7 · 13:00 · Elche vs Girona
Likeliest: Elche win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche53%43%+10
OursMarket
Draw21%28%−7
OursMarket
Girona25%28%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 57% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 61% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 28 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- Nov 23 · v Real Madrid (H)2-2
- Nov 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- Oct 29 · at Los Garres (A)4-0
Girona
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 3 · at Ourense CF (A)1-2
- Nov 30 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-0
- Oct 31 · at Getafe (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Elche | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.