La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 21 · 17:30 · Elche vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Elche win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 39%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche54%39%+15
OursMarket
Draw24%31%−6
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano22%30%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 40% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 70% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 61% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 57% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Dec 16 · at SD Eibar (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · at Mallorca (A)1-3
- Dec 7 · v Girona (H)3-0
- Nov 28 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- Nov 23 · v Real Madrid (H)2-2
Rayo Vallecano
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 18 · v Drita (H)3-0
- Dec 15 · v Real Betis (H)0-0
- Dec 11 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Espanyol (A)0-1
- Dec 1 · v Valencia (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Elche | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.