La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Nov 23 · 20:00 · Elche vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 39%
A 26% draw. The market says 18%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche35%13%+22
OursMarket
Draw26%18%+8
OursMarket
Real Madrid39%69%−30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 64% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 31% | +30 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 87% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 82% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 15% | +32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Nov 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- Oct 29 · at Los Garres (A)4-0
- Oct 25 · at Espanyol (A)0-1
- Oct 19 · v Athletic Club (H)0-0
Real Madrid
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Nov 9 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-0
- Nov 4 · at Liverpool (A)0-1
- Nov 1 · v Valencia (H)4-0
- Oct 26 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Oct 22 · v Juventus (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Elche | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.