La Liga (Spain) · Tue, Sep 15 · 19:30 · Elche vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 77%
A tight one: we make it 77% for the away win. The market says 73%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche8%10%−2
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Real Madrid77%73%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 23% | 27% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 93% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 9% | 12% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Barcelona (H)0-5
- Aug 17 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
Real Madrid
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Inter Milan (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Málaga (H)4-0
- Aug 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Elche | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.