La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Nov 7 · 20:00 · Elche vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Elche win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Elche55%——
OursMarket
Draw21%——
OursMarket
Real Sociedad23%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Nov 2 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- Oct 29 · at Los Garres (A)4-0
- Oct 25 · at Espanyol (A)0-1
- Oct 19 · v Athletic Club (H)0-0
- Oct 5 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-3
Real Sociedad
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Nov 1 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
- Oct 28 · at Negreira (A)3-0
- Oct 24 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
- Oct 19 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-1
- Oct 5 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Elche | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.