La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Sep 7 · 19:30 · Elche vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Elche win · 52%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche52%32%+20
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−5
OursMarket
Real Sociedad26%40%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 60% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 68% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 44% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Aug 28 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Barcelona (H)0-5
- Aug 17 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- May 23 · at Girona (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
Real Sociedad
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 3 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Aug 21 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- May 23 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Elche | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.