La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 3 · 17:30 · Elche vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Elche win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 29%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche49%29%+19
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Villarreal27%43%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 57% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 71% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 40% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
LossWinLossWinWin
- Dec 21 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-0
- Dec 16 · at SD Eibar (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · at Mallorca (A)1-3
- Dec 7 · v Girona (H)3-0
- Nov 28 · at Getafe (A)0-1
Villarreal
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Dec 21 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Dec 17 · at Racing Santander (A)1-2
- Dec 10 · v FC København (H)2-3
- Dec 6 · v Getafe (H)2-0
- Nov 30 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Elche | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.