3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 12 · 16:00 · Elverum vs Lyn 1896 FK II
Likeliest: Elverum win · 46%
A 27% away win. The market says 15%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elverum46%70%−24
OursMarket
Draw27%15%+12
OursMarket
Lyn 1896 FK II27%15%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 85% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 30% | +24 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 85% | −12 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 83% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elverum
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Bjoerkelangen (H)5-0
- Sep 26 · at Sandefjord Fotball II (A)3-4
- Sep 19 · v Raelingen FK (H)4-1
- Sep 16 · v Raufoss (H)0-3
- Sep 12 · at Råde (A)2-4
Lyn 1896 FK II
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 5 · v Råde (H)0-0
- Sep 28 · at Raelingen FK (A)0-1
- Sep 21 · v Sarpsborg 08 II (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Gjøvik-Lyn (A)0-2
- Sep 7 · at Drøbak/Frogn (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Elverum | Lyn 1896 FK II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-1 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.