LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Oct 25 · 19:00 · Emelec vs Guayaquil City
Likeliest: Emelec win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Emelec57%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Guayaquil City15%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 45% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Emelec
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Leones del Norte (A)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Guayaquil City (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Libertad (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Macará (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Manta FC (H)1-0
Guayaquil City
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Libertad (A)0-4
- Oct 10 · v Emelec (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Leones del Norte (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Mushuc Runa (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Orense SC (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | Emelec | Guayaquil City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-2 | 1-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.