Serie B (Italy) · Fri, May 1 · 13:00 · Empoli vs Avellino
Likeliest: Avellino win · 43%
A 43% away win. The market says 25%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Empoli32%45%−14
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Avellino43%25%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 44% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 75% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 55% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 64% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Empoli
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · at Venezia (A)0-2
- Apr 19 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Calcio Padova (A)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Sampdoria (A)0-1
- Mar 22 · v Pescara (H)4-2
Avellino
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Apr 24 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Mantova (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · v Catanzaro (H)1-1
- Apr 5 · at Palermo (A)0-2
- Mar 22 · at Sampdoria (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Empoli | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.