Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Aug 22 · 19:00 · Empoli vs Cremonese
Likeliest: Empoli win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 34%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Empoli41%34%+8
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−3
OursMarket
Cremonese31%36%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 45% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 52% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 66% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 48% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Empoli
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Aug 17 · at Pisa (A)1-1
- May 8 · at Monza (A)2-2
- May 1 · v Avellino (H)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Venezia (A)0-2
- Apr 19 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-1
Cremonese
LossWinWinLossWin
- Aug 17 · v Sampdoria (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Como (H)1-4
- May 17 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- May 10 · v Pisa (H)3-0
- May 4 · v Lazio (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Empoli | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.