Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Mar 22 · 14:00 · Empoli vs Pescara
Likeliest: Pescara win · 37%
A 37% away win. The market says 28%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Empoli36%45%−9
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Pescara37%28%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 51% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 72% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 55% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 62% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Empoli
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Mar 17 · at Spezia (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Mantova (H)2-2
- Mar 8 · at Catanzaro (A)2-3
- Mar 4 · at Bari 1908 (A)1-2
- Feb 28 · v Cesena (H)1-1
Pescara
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Mar 18 · v Virtus Entella (H)3-0
- Mar 15 · at Südtirol (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · v Bari 1908 (H)4-0
- Mar 4 · at Frosinone (A)2-2
- Mar 1 · v Palermo (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Empoli | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.