Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Apr 19 · 17:30 · Empoli vs Virtus Entella
Likeliest: Virtus Entella win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 25%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Empoli36%45%−8
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−6
OursMarket
Virtus Entella39%25%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 75% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 55% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 64% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Empoli
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Apr 12 · at Calcio Padova (A)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Sampdoria (A)0-1
- Mar 22 · v Pescara (H)4-2
- Mar 17 · at Spezia (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Mantova (H)2-2
Virtus Entella
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Apr 11 · v Venezia (H)1-1
- Apr 6 · at Mantova (A)0-1
- Mar 22 · v Reggiana (H)3-0
- Mar 18 · at Pescara (A)0-3
- Mar 15 · v Avellino (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Empoli | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.