2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 16 · 16:30 · Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Likeliest: 1. FC Nürnberg win · 49%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Energie Cottbus27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
1. FC Nürnberg49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Energie Cottbus
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v FC St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Karlsruher SC (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)4-4
- Aug 29 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)3-4
1. FC Nürnberg
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)4-4
- Sep 19 · at Karlsruher SC (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Hannover 96 (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Holstein Kiel (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Energie Cottbus | 1. FC Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.