2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 20 · 11:30 · Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli
Likeliest: FC St. Pauli win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Energie Cottbus29%31%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
FC St. Pauli46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Energie Cottbus
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at Karlsruher SC (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)4-4
- Aug 29 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)3-4
- Aug 22 · v FC Augsburg (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)0-3
FC St. Pauli
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Rot-Weiss Essen (A)0-2
- Aug 14 · at Holstein Kiel (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Energie Cottbus | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-4 | 1-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.