Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Mon, Sep 28 · 16:00 · Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone
Likeliest: draw · 38%
A 38% draw. The market says 27%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Equatorial Guinea31%51%−20
OursMarket
Draw38%27%+11
OursMarket
Sierra Leone30%21%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 41% | −10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 39% | 44% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 79% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 49% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 62% | 73% | −11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 71% | −20 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Equatorial Guinea
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 24 · at DR Congo (A)0-2
- Mar 31 · v Madagascar (H)1-1
- Mar 25 · at Kyrgyz Republic (A)1-0
- Nov 17 · at Madagascar (A)0-2
- Nov 14 · at Kenya (A)1-0
Sierra Leone
WinLossLoss
- Sep 24 · v Zimbabwe (H)2-3
- Jun 9 · at Liberia (A)1-3
- Jun 6 · v Liberia (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Equatorial Guinea | Sierra Leone |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | — |
| Both teams scored | 43% | — |
| Clean sheets | 29% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.