Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 · Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor
Likeliest: Erzurumspor FK win · 58%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Erzurumspor FK58%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Eyüpspor16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Erzurumspor FK
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Alanyaspor (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Samsunspor (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at Beşiktaş (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Konyaspor (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)1-1
Eyüpspor
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 12 · v Göztepe (H)0-4
- Sep 20 · at Fenerbahçe (A)0-8
- Sep 12 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Çorum FK (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v Alanyaspor (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Erzurumspor FK | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.