Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:00 · Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor
Likeliest: Samsunspor win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Erzurumspor FK34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+1
OursMarket
Samsunspor37%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Erzurumspor FK
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 11 · at Beşiktaş (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Konyaspor (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)1-1
- Aug 21 · v Galatasaray (H)0-4
- Aug 16 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)0-3
Samsunspor
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Çorum FK (H)1-5
- Sep 6 · at Kocaelispor (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Fenerbahçe (H)0-2
- Aug 22 · at Çaykur Rizespor (A)2-0
- Aug 17 · v Göztepe (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Erzurumspor FK | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.