Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia
Likeliest: FC Fredericia win · 66%
Likely score: 1–2
A 66% away win. The market says 61%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Esbjerg14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%21%−1
OursMarket
FC Fredericia66%61%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 39% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 23% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Esbjerg
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 16 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v AaB (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · at AB (A)0-3
- Sep 15 · at HIK (A)5-0
- Sep 12 · v HB Køge (H)2-2
FC Fredericia
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Hobro (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · at Hillerød (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Vejle (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Kolding IF (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Esbjerg (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Esbjerg | FC Fredericia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.