Oddset Pokalen (Denmark) · Wed, Oct 28 · 16:00 · Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjælland
Likeliest: FC Nordsjælland win · 71%
Likely scores: 0–2 12% · 1–1 9% · 0–1 9%
A 71% away win. The market says 66%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Esbjerg11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
FC Nordsjælland71%66%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 29% | 34% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Esbjerg
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 24 · v FC Fredericia (H)2-1
- Oct 16 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v AaB (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · at AB (A)0-3
- Sep 15 · at HIK (A)5-0
FC Nordsjælland
DrawDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 25 · at Silkeborg IF (A)1-1
- Oct 22 · v CSKA Sofia (H)2-2
- Oct 18 · at Lyngby (A)3-3
- Oct 15 · at Hearts (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v Odense Boldklub (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Esbjerg | FC Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.