Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:00 · Esbjerg vs HB Køge
Likeliest: Esbjerg win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Esbjerg49%48%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
HB Køge27%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Esbjerg
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at FC Fredericia (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Vendsyssel FF (H)0-2
- Aug 21 · at Vejle (A)2-4
- Aug 15 · v Hobro (H)1-2
- Aug 9 · at Hvidovre (A)1-2
HB Køge
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 4 · v Hillerød (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at AaB (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · v Kolding IF (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Hvidovre (H)0-2
- Aug 8 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Esbjerg | HB Køge |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.