Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sun, Aug 30 · 13:00 · Esbjerg vs Vendsyssel FF
Likeliest: Esbjerg win · 49%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Esbjerg49%46%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Vendsyssel FF25%29%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 61% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 62% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 61% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Esbjerg
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 21 · at Vejle (A)2-4
- Aug 15 · v Hobro (H)1-2
- Aug 9 · at Hvidovre (A)1-2
- Aug 1 · at Hillerød (A)3-2
- Jul 25 · v Kolding IF (H)1-1
Vendsyssel FF
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Aug 20 · v Hillerød (H)1-0
- Aug 16 · v AB (H)0-3
- Aug 9 · at FC Fredericia (A)1-1
- Aug 2 · v Hobro (H)1-2
- Jul 25 · at Hvidovre (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Esbjerg | Vendsyssel FF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.