1. Lig (Turkey) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:00 · Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 Spor
Likeliest: Esenler Erokspor win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Esenler Erokspor46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Mardin 1969 Spor25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Esenler Erokspor
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 15 · at Manisa FK (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · at İstanbulspor (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Fatih Karagümrük (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Bursaspor (A)2-2
- Sep 7 · v Kayserispor (H)0-3
Mardin 1969 Spor
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 15 · v Fatih Karagümrük (H)1-0
- Oct 11 · at Bursaspor (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Kayserispor (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Iğdır FK (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v Bodrum FK (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Esenler Erokspor | Mardin 1969 Spor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.