La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 16 · 13:00 · Espanyol vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Espanyol49%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Athletic Club25%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Feb 9 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
- Feb 1 · v Real Madrid (H)1-0
- Jan 25 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-1
- Jan 11 · v Leganés (H)1-1
Athletic Club
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Feb 8 · v Girona (H)3-0
- Feb 2 · at Real Betis (A)2-2
- Jan 30 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)3-1
- Jan 26 · v Leganés (H)0-0
- Jan 22 · at Beşiktaş (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-1 | 3-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 86% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.