La Liga (Spain) · Wed, May 13 · 17:00 · Espanyol vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 34%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol39%34%+5
OursMarket
Draw29%32%−3
OursMarket
Athletic Club32%34%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 38% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 50% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- May 9 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- May 3 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 27 · v Levante (H)0-0
- Apr 23 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-4
Athletic Club
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- May 12 · at Internacional (A)2-3
- May 10 · v Valencia (H)0-1
- May 9 · v Cuiabá (H)0-0
- May 4 · at Vila Nova (A)1-1
- May 2 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.