La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 14 · 13:00 · Espanyol vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 38%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol35%38%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo38%32%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 43% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 68% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 54% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 9 · at Villarreal (A)1-4
- Jan 30 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-2
- Jan 24 · at Valencia (A)2-3
- Jan 16 · v Girona (H)0-2
- Jan 11 · at Levante (A)1-1
Celta de Vigo
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 6 · v Osasuna (H)1-2
- Feb 1 · at Getafe (A)0-0
- Jan 29 · at Crvena Zvezda (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
- Jan 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.