La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Jan 30 · 20:00 · Espanyol vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 44%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol44%48%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−5
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés30%22%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 38% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 44% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 78% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 68% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 24 · at Valencia (A)2-3
- Jan 16 · v Girona (H)0-2
- Jan 11 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Dec 22 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
Deportivo Alavés
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Jan 25 · v Real Betis (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
- Jan 14 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-0
- Jan 10 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Jan 4 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.