La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Sep 18 · 19:00 · Espanyol vs Elche
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Elche20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 15 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Osasuna (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Sevilla (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
Elche
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 15 · v Real Madrid (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Barcelona (H)0-5
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.