La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 3 · 20:00 · Espanyol vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 47%
A 31% home win. The market says 16%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol31%16%+15
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
FC Barcelona47%64%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 60% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 36% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 84% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 20% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
WinLossWinWinWin
- Dec 22 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
- Dec 13 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Dec 7 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- Dec 4 · at Atlético Baleares (A)0-1
- Nov 30 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-0
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 21 · at Villarreal (A)2-0
- Dec 16 · at Guadalajara (A)2-0
- Dec 13 · v Osasuna (H)2-0
- Dec 9 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Real Betis (A)5-3
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.