La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 21 · 15:15 · Espanyol vs Getafe
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 42%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol42%39%+3
OursMarket
Draw27%33%−6
OursMarket
Getafe31%28%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 31% | +20 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 40% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 67% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Mar 15 · at Mallorca (A)1-2
- Mar 9 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Elche (A)2-2
- Feb 21 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-4
- Feb 14 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-2
Getafe
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 14 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Real Betis (H)2-0
- Mar 2 · at Real Madrid (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Sevilla (H)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Villarreal (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.