La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Mar 10 · 20:00 · Espanyol vs Girona
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Espanyol48%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Girona25%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 22 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-0
- Feb 16 · v Athletic Club (H)1-1
- Feb 9 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
- Feb 1 · v Real Madrid (H)1-0
- Jan 25 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
Girona
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Mar 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-2
- Feb 23 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Getafe (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Athletic Club (A)0-3
- Feb 3 · v Las Palmas (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-1 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.