La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Jan 16 · 20:00 · Espanyol vs Girona
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 46%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol46%50%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Girona28%23%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 45% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 49% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 77% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 69% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Jan 11 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Dec 22 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
- Dec 13 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Dec 7 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
Girona
LossWinLossWinWin
- Jan 10 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Jan 4 · at Mallorca (A)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-3
- Dec 12 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Elche (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.