La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Apr 27 · 19:00 · Espanyol vs Levante
Likeliest: Levante win · 41%
A 41% away win. The market says 25%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol34%46%−12
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Levante41%25%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 75% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 54% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 64% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Apr 23 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-4
- Apr 4 · at Real Betis (A)0-0
- Mar 21 · v Getafe (H)1-2
- Mar 15 · at Mallorca (A)1-2
Levante
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Apr 23 · v Sevilla (H)2-0
- Apr 13 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-2
- Mar 16 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.