La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Aug 16 · 17:00 · Espanyol vs Levante UD
Likeliest: Levante UD win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 25%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol38%46%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Levante UD39%25%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 42% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 75% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 65% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
LossLossWinWinDraw
- May 23 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- May 13 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- May 9 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- May 3 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
Levante UD
LossWinWinWinLoss
- May 23 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
- May 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-2
- May 8 · v Osasuna (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.