La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 7 · 17:30 · Espanyol vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 45%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol45%41%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano31%30%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 58% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 4 · at Atlético Baleares (A)0-1
- Nov 30 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-0
- Nov 24 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
- Nov 8 · v Villarreal (H)0-2
- Nov 2 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
Rayo Vallecano
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Dec 1 · v Valencia (H)1-1
- Nov 27 · at Slovan Bratislava (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Nov 9 · v Real Madrid (H)0-0
- Nov 6 · v Lech Poznań (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.