La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 3 · 19:00 · Espanyol vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 47%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol29%21%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Real Madrid47%55%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 61% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 60% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 28% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 27 · v Levante (H)0-0
- Apr 23 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-4
- Apr 4 · at Real Betis (A)0-0
- Mar 21 · v Getafe (H)1-2
Real Madrid
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 24 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
- Apr 15 · at FC Bayern München (A)3-4
- Apr 10 · v Girona (H)1-1
- Apr 7 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.