La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Aug 22 · 19:30 · Espanyol vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 51%
A 27% home win. The market says 13%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol27%13%+15
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
Real Madrid51%66%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 55% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 34% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 87% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 16% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 16 · v Levante UD (H)3-0
- May 23 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- May 13 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- May 9 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
Real Madrid
WinLossWinWinWin
- May 23 · v Athletic Club (H)4-2
- May 17 · at Sevilla (A)1-0
- May 14 · v Real Oviedo (H)2-0
- May 10 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-2
- May 3 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.