La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 23 · 19:00 · Espanyol vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 41%
We make it 59% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol41%39%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−1
OursMarket
Real Sociedad33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 52% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 54% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
DrawLossLossWinWin
- May 17 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- May 13 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- May 9 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- May 3 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 27 · v Levante (H)0-0
Real Sociedad
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- May 17 · v Valencia (H)3-4
- May 14 · at Girona (A)1-1
- May 9 · v Real Betis (H)2-2
- May 4 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.