La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Nov 24 · 20:00 · Espanyol vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 65%
A 65% home win. The market says 47%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol65%47%+19
OursMarket
Draw19%28%−9
OursMarket
Sevilla16%25%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 44% | +21 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 75% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 53% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 72% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 65% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Nov 8 · v Villarreal (H)0-2
- Nov 2 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Oct 30 · at Atlètic Lleida (A)2-1
- Oct 25 · v Elche (H)1-0
- Oct 17 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-0
Sevilla
LossLossWinLossWin
- Nov 8 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Nov 1 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-3
- Oct 28 · at Toledo (A)4-1
- Oct 24 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
- Oct 18 · v Mallorca (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.