La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 6 · 19:00 · Espanyol vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 43%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Espanyol43%42%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Sevilla31%28%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 40% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 72% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 60% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Aug 29 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Levante UD (H)3-0
- May 23 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
Sevilla
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 29 · v Atletico Madrid (H)1-3
- Aug 22 · at Athletic Club (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-1
- May 23 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Real Madrid (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.