La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 8 · 20:00 · Espanyol vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Espanyol43%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Villarreal31%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Espanyol
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 2 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Oct 30 · at Atlètic Lleida (A)2-1
- Oct 25 · v Elche (H)1-0
- Oct 17 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-0
- Oct 5 · v Real Betis (H)1-2
Villarreal
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 5 · at Pafos FC (A)0-1
- Nov 1 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-0
- Oct 29 · at Lucena (A)6-0
- Oct 25 · at Valencia (A)2-0
- Oct 21 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Espanyol | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.