AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 16:00 · Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal SC
Likeliest: Al Shamal SC win · 37%
Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 11%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Esteghlal FC32%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
Al Shamal SC37%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Esteghlal FC
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 27 · at Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai (A)0-2
- Oct 23 · at Chador Malu Yazd (A)1-1
- Oct 18 · v Gol Gohar Sirjan (H)1-0
- Oct 12 · at Al-Gharafa (A)2-1
- Oct 8 · at Tractor FC (A)1-1
Al Shamal SC
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 30 · at Al-Sadd (A)1-4
- Oct 27 · v Al-Hilal (H)3-1
- Oct 23 · v Qatar SC (H)2-3
- Oct 17 · at Lusail SC (A)0-0
- Oct 12 · at Tractor FC (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Esteghlal FC | Al Shamal SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.