Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:15 · Esteghlal FC vs Gol Gohar Sirjan
Likeliest: Esteghlal FC win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Esteghlal FC47%51%−5
OursMarket
Draw33%29%+4
OursMarket
Gol Gohar Sirjan21%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 73% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Esteghlal FC
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 12 · at Al-Gharafa (A)2-1
- Oct 8 · at Tractor FC (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · v Al-Sadd (H)3-0
- Sep 10 · v Paykan (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Aluminium Arak (A)0-0
Gol Gohar Sirjan
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Al-Muharraq (A)0-2
- Oct 8 · v Esteghlal Khuzestan (H)3-0
- Sep 15 · v Al-Jazira (H)0-0
- Sep 10 · at Shams Azar Qazvin (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Tractor FC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Esteghlal FC | Gol Gohar Sirjan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.