Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:30 · Estoril Praia vs Moreirense
Likeliest: Estoril Praia win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Estoril Praia51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Moreirense22%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Estoril Praia
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Sport Comércio e Salgueiros (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Casa Pia (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v FC Arouca (H)0-0
Moreirense
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at AVS - Futebol SAD (A)0-1
- Oct 9 · v Gil Vicente (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Vitória SC (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · v Marítimo (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · v Benfica (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Estoril Praia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.