Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:30 · Estudiantes de Buenos Aires vs Los Andes
Likeliest: Estudiantes de Buenos Aires win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Estudiantes de Buenos Aires57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+1
OursMarket
Los Andes13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Estudiantes de Buenos Aires
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Godoy Cruz (A)3-6
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo Morón (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · at Club Atletico Colón (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v San Miguel (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at San Telmo (A)1-0
Los Andes
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v All Boys (H)1-1
- Oct 12 · at Racing de Córdoba (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Godoy Cruz (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · v Deportivo Morón (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Club Atletico Colón (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | Los Andes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 0-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.