Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 14 · 18:00 · Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve vs Lanús Reserve
Likeliest: Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve win · 35%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve35%39%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
Lanús Reserve35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 6 · at Newell's Old Boys Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 29 · v Defensa y Justicia Reserve (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (A)0-2
- Sep 17 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 10 · v Huracán Reserve (H)3-1
Lanús Reserve
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 8 · v Central Cordoba Reserve (H)3-0
- Oct 1 · at San Martin Reserve (A)2-0
- Sep 23 · v Banfield Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve (H)3-3
- Sep 10 · at CD Riestra Reserve (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve | Lanús Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.