Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Thu, Aug 27 · 22:00 · Estudiantes de La Plata vs Barracas Central
Likeliest: Estudiantes de La Plata win · 50%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Estudiantes de La Plata50%55%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Barracas Central25%17%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 37% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 39% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 83% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 77% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Estudiantes de La Plata
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 23 · at Sarmiento (A)0-2
- Aug 19 · at Universidad Católica (A)3-0
- Aug 15 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)4-0
- Aug 12 · v Universidad Católica (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)0-2
Barracas Central
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 23 · v Platense (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Rosario Central (H)0-1
- Aug 9 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima (A)0-2
- Aug 2 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)1-0
- Jul 29 · v Aldosivi (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Estudiantes de La Plata | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.