Copa Libertadores (South America) · Thu, Sep 10 · 00:30 · Estudiantes de La Plata vs Corinthians
Likeliest: Estudiantes de La Plata win · 40%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Estudiantes de La Plata40%43%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%32%−4
OursMarket
Corinthians33%25%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 31% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 39% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 75% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 68% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 63% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Estudiantes de La Plata
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)0-1
- Aug 31 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)0-0
- Aug 27 · v Barracas Central (H)3-1
- Aug 23 · at Sarmiento (A)0-2
- Aug 19 · at Universidad Católica (A)3-0
Corinthians
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 6 · v Chapecoense (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Santos (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Coritiba (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · v Rosario Central (H)1-0
- Aug 16 · v Cruzeiro (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Estudiantes de La Plata | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.